How anticipating saved 2,687 lives
-Be like Rick Rescorla!
If Hippocrates is a respected role model for the medical profession, the equivalent role model for foresight and security could be Rick Rescorla. Does the name sound familiar? If not, let’s have a quick recap.
Cyril Richard Rescorla was born in 1939 in Hayley, UK. As a young boy, his childhood included watching the Second World War unfold. He was a fan of the soldiers, especially the US Army, who also visited Ricki’s home town at the end of the Second World War. Rick decided to become a soldier, and at the age of 16, joined the British Army and, through this, served in the intelligence unit during the Cyprus crisis. After a series of phases, Rick ended up in the United States, where he joined the army and fought in the Vietnam War. He was known as a brave, compassionate, and humorous man. Rescorla was awarded several decorations for his actions in Vietnam, including the Silver Star and Purple Heart medals.
After serving in the army, Rick ended up in the United States studying literature, law, and teaching, among other subjects. He eventually moved into the security industry in search of a better living. Rescorla worked as a security manager at New York’s famous landmark World Trade Center (WTC) complex for Dean Witter security firm.
Could the same happen to the WTC towers?
In 1988, Pan Am Flight 103 from Frankfurt to Detroit was hit by a terrorist bomb over the town of Lockerbie in Scotland. The plane and its passengers and crew were destroyed. The attack also killed people in the city. A total of 270 people died in the attack.
The incident prompted Rescorla to consider the possibility of a terrorist attack on the World Trade Center towers. He called in his army buddy and terrorism expert, Daniel Hill, to consult on the security of the World Trade Center towers. Hill discovered that the security in the parking garage was non-existent. It would be possible for terrorists to drive a truckload of explosives into the basement parking garage near the support columns and strike the Big Apple business centre. Rescorla and Hill produced a report on the subject in 1990 and handed it over to the owner of the WTC towers. However, it was considered too expensive to improve the protection of the parking garage, so nothing was done.
The first attack on the WTC towers took place on 26 February 1993. Muslim terrorists drove a van loaded with explosives into the North Tower car park. The aim was to bring down the entire North Tower and, at the same time, bring down the South Tower. The attack failed in its broad objectives, but six people were killed (including one pregnant woman) and over a thousand injured.
The attack was naturally a shock. Rescorla was at work at the time, managing the evacuation operations. He was sure more trouble was coming; this would not stop there. US foreign policy would undoubtedly lead to further attacks in the future.
When Dean Witter merged with investment bank Morgan Stanley in 1997, Rescorla became Morgan Stanley’s head of security. The merger gave Morgan Stanley as many as 22 floors of the South Tower (WTC2). Rescorla was still concerned about the future of the WTC towers and was considering new security threats with his friend Daniel Hill. They came up with the scenario that the next attack on the WTC towers would come from the sky. In their scenario, a cargo plane loaded with chemical or biological agents would crash into the towers. Rescorla considered the threat so possible that he tried to persuade Morgan Stanley executives to move their offices to New Jersey, where office space was cheaper. However, the management did not accept Rescorla’s wishes because the lease was still outstanding. So Rescorla did what it could under the circumstances. He regularly organised evacuation drills for employees down to the busiest management. The drills were far from popular: they were a nasty interruption to the working day and the work. However, Rescorla refused to be flexible on this issue.
Evacuation drills become a reality.
On 11 September 2001, Rescorla was supposed to be on holiday, but by a twist of fate, he went to support a colleague at work in the WTC tower. The first plane hit the first tower (WTC 1) at 8.46 am. The building authorities ordered the people in Tower 2 to stay, but Rescorla immediately launched an evacuation operation in Morgan Stanley. He guided nearly 2,700 workers in WTC2 out of the building just before another plane hit the tower.
Of the 2,700 workers, only 13 were killed when the towers collapsed. 2,687 people were rescued thanks to Rescorla. Unfortunately, Rick Rescorla himself lost his life in the attack. He stayed in the building until the end, helping people to escape.
Be like Rick.
Rick Rescorla’s story has made an impression on me, a long-time foresight professional. I wrote about Rick Rescorla in my first book, Foresight and Innovation, in 2013. In that book, I highlighted Rescorla as a good example of how to prepare in advance for the so-called wild cards, i.e. unexpected and rapid events. Rick Rescorla did what foresight does best: he thought up various imaginative scenarios for security threats. He also prepared for them to the best of his ability. First, he tried to get the company to move to safer premises. Still, since Morgan Stanley’s management refused to move out of the towers, he did the next most important act of foresight in these circumstances: he organised evacuation drills to prepare the company’s employees for a disaster if one ever occurred. The boring evacuation drills proved to be worth more than gold.
Science fiction and the use of imagination to prepare for future threats
Rescorla’s foresight work saved lives. But how do you do foresight? As an engineer by training, I love formulas, so I developed my formula for foresight. Hiltunen’s foresight formula is:
Anticipating the Future = Facts + Imagination
The idea behind the formula is that all foresight is based on facts, i.e. a survey of the current situation and history. We don’t have facts about the future, so we can’t look at them. In the foresight literature, going through the facts is called “environmental scanning”. It means getting a comprehensive overview of where we are now.
Rescorla was concerned about the bombing of a Pan Am airplane and wondered about the impact of US foreign policy on the increase in terrorist attacks. He also looked for weaknesses in the security of the WTC towers. This can be called fact-finding.
But we cannot reach the future if we do not dare to use our imagination. With a friend, Rescorla imagined visions of trucks filled with explosives and planes crashing into the towers. They probably seemed like completely crazy ideas from the point of view of Morgan Stanley executives and tower owners — and yet, they happened, just as Rescorla and his friend had envisioned. Imagination is essential in foresight, but unfortunately, it is often underestimated in organisations.
I am currently working on my second PhD at the National Defence College. The dissertation is entitled ‘Using Science Fiction in Foresight in Defence Organisation’. In my research, I am thinking about what warfare might look like in the future and how technological developments, in particular, will change it. In short, I am thinking about the security threats of the future.
Science fiction can be a good tool for considering future threats in different organisations. It combines facts and gives room for imagination.
When thinking about future threats, my motto is:
“Dare to use your imagination. Someone out there is already using their imagination.”
The history of wars provides good examples of how using imagination with even small resources has had a significant impact (the 911 terrorist attack is, of course, one example). Finnish war innovations include the Molotov cocktail and, during the Continuation War, the playing of the Säkkijärvi Polka on the radio on a specific frequency for days to prevent Russian mines from being blown up in Vyborg.
Science fiction is an excellent way to consider how technology can change the future and bring new security threats. Science fiction is already used in some militaries around the world. For example, the Canadian Army, the French Army and NATO have used science fiction to reflect on future war and security threats. When we dare to use our imagination to think about threats, we are already half-prepared for different threats.
The article was published in Security and Risk Management 2023 and edited for the blog.
Photo collage sources: Wikipedia and Canva
If you are interested me as a lecturer, please check: www.elinahiltunen.com
